Race of the Week- July 4th, 2020: Met Mile

The 2020 Runhappy Met Mile will be ran as Race 9 on the 4th of July at Belmont. This year’s field is impressive from top to bottom, with a lot of potential contenders.

In my analysis, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Let’s check out the rankings for the eight horses entered in this year’s Runhappy Met Mile.

McKinzie is my favorite in this year’s Met Mile and tops my rankings of the field. McKinzie has the best speed ratings and has finished either first or second and in 14-of-16 career races. But after a second place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November and an 11th place finish in the Saudi Cup some have wondered if his form isn’t quite what it was previously.

Mr Freeze is the horse I like at little longer shot (8-1). He hasn’t had a grade 1 win, but has multiple grade 2 and 3s and finished second in his last (Oaklawn Handicap- behind By My Standards). Code of Honor will also be in the mix. He’s won four of his last five starts including a win in the Travers last year. Code of Honor also finished second in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Vekoma is another horse a lot of people like. Vekoma has been racing his best lately; coming off back to back wins in the Sir Shackleton Stakes and the Runhappy Carter Handicap.

I have run the 2020 Met Mile 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies:

Most Likely to Win: McKinzie (2-1)

Longer Shot I Like: Mr Freeze (8-1)

Superfecta: 3-7-5-2

There really is about six horses with a shot to win this race. Betting McKinzie or not depends on whether you believe if he’s lost a step or not. Code of Honor always seems to be in the mix and Vekoma is racing really well recently. Those are my most likely to win, but Network Effect and Endorsed could run well too. Irad Ortiz Jr has been the best jockey at Belmont recently and is aboard the 1 Network Effect, that would be the reason to put money there. Although he doesn’t look great on paper, many expert’s like Warrior’s Charge as a longshot too. So for me the only one I can rule out of my bets is Hog Creek Hustle. The Met Mile is the headliner of a fantastic card on the 4th this year at Belmont and I’m excited to pay attention to what will be a great day of racing.

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