Race of the Week- July 11th, 2020: Blue Grass Stakes

The 2020 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes will be ran as Race 9 on July 11th at Keeneland Race Course, post time is set for 4:30 CT. Last year’s winner was Vekoma, who we saw win the Met Mile in last weekend’s race of the week. This Grade II race will be a mile and one eighth, it’s for three year olds and has a purse of $600,000. There are 13 horses entered in this year’s field, but a couple horses do stand out from the rest to me.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Let’s check out the rankings for the 13 horses entered in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes.

The 3-1 morning line favorite is the filly running against the boys: Swiss Skydiver. She’s my clear favorite horse in this one. She’s won three straight stakes races (Gulfstream Park Oaks, Fantasy Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks) and is the current points leader on the road to the Kentucky Oaks.

My second choice is Art Collector. Although he hasn’t won a stakes race yet, he’s won his last two races. He looked great in his last, blowing away a field that included the 2 horse here, Finnick the Fierce. I’m curious what he’ll do against the kind of speed Swiss Skydiver and Shivaree will provide.

At 8-1, the longer shot I like is the #1, Shivaree. Two races back, he was an 80-1 shot in the Florida Derby that dueled for the lead with Ete Indien until Tiz the Law came through for the win down the stretch. But a second place finish to Tiz the Law was a great showing for Shivaree. His last race was a 3rd place finish in a race at Gulfstream Park on June 10th. In that race, Shivaree again dueled the 3/5 favorite Ete Indien at the front the entire race and actually overtook Ete Indien before Sole Volante came from the outside to beat them both.

I have run the 2020 Blue Grass Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies:

Most Likely to Win: Swiss Skydiver (3-1)

Longer Shot I Like: Shivaree (8-1)

My Bet: 7-3 Exacta

Superfecta: 7-3-1-12

This is going to be a great race to watch. Swiss Skydiver is the only filly going against a field of all boys here, but she 100% deserves to be here. There is a chance Swiss Skydiver gets bet all the way down to 2-1 and if that’s the case looking at Art Collector might be a better source of value. Shivaree will be up there pushing the pace as well. I expect Basin (Finished 2nd to Charlatan in Arkansas Derby), Enforceable and even Man in the Can to get some betting action, but I’ll be staying away from them.

Below are some of the last races from the horses I like:

7 Swiss Skydiver

Swiss Skydiver (#3 horse here) outduels 4/5 favorite Venetian Harbor in the Fantasy Stakes

3 Art Collector

Art Collector (#4 horse here) runs away from the field in his last race at Churchill Downs

1 Shivaree

Shivaree (#2 horse here) runs a very respectable second to Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby

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