For the first time ever the Belmont Stakes will be the first leg of the triple crown rather than the last. Horse Racing is one of the few sports that has continued to hold events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, albeit without fans in attendance. It will be a Belmont unlike we’ve seen before- being the first leg of the triple crown and having no fans in attendance, but without further ado, let’s dive into the 2020 Belmont field.
In my analysis, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Below is my rankings for the ten horses entered.
The horse to beat is Tiz the Law, the 6/5 morning line favorite. In his last two races, he’s posted speed ratings greater than anyone else in this field (112, 117) on his way to back-to-back wins in the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 3) and Curlin Florida Derby (Grade 1).
There isn’t a consensus second best horse in this field. Even Tap It to Win, who is pretty far down on my rankings, has been running well and had a really poor run a few starts back that hurt him on my rankings. Max Player is the intriguing bet I like at 15-1, coming off back-to-back wins in a maiden special weight and then the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct back on February 1st (his only start of 2020). My other horse to highlight is the #2 Sole Volante: the only horse to post an above 100 Equibase speed figure in each of his last three races (107, 102, 108).
I have run the 2020 Belmont Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.
Here’s My Quick Wrap Up For Your Betting Strategies
Most likely to Win: 8-Tiz the Law (6/5)
Best Bet- 3-Max Player (15-1)
Although Tiz the Law has about a 41% chance to win in my book, I might have to stay away if he’s bet down to even odds. I’m hoping Max Player can stay at longer odds, but it’ll be tough to completely ignore Sole Volante. With the strategy of looking to beat Tiz the Law, I would have to watch the odds of horses like Sole Volante, Tap It to Win, Modernist and Dr Post because they could all be good bets given the right odds.
