Kentucky Derby Trail: Arkansas Derby

The 2021 Arkansas Derby will be Race 12 on April 10th at Oaklawn Park. Post time is set for 6:41 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and 1/8 miles and has a purse of $1,000,000. The race is for three-years old horses and will give us one final 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders. There are six horses in the field this year. Last year there was so many entries, they broke it up into two races. Nadal won one race, Basin won the other (Charlatan was DQ’d in that one). Let’s take a look at the rankings for the horses in this year’s field.

Concert Tour is the obvious favorite here. This Baffert-trained horse ran away in the Rebel Stakes last time out and everyone in this field except for Last Samurai was in that field. Lightly raced, but he’s still undefeated and the clear horse to beat in this field.

Caddo River was the second favorite to Concert Tour heading into the Rebel at 9/5 (Concert Tour was 2-1). He had a terrible trip in that race. He never got to the lead, sitting behind Concert Tour and faded to finish 5th. The ride from Florent Geroux drew a lot of questions and it looked like he may not have been on that same race with Caddo River in that one. It also appeared that he got bumped by Big Lake in that race; which only adds to the rough finish. If Geroux and Caddo River learned from that one and run the race he’s shown before, he could upset here, but they need to do something different than what they did in the Rebel.

Hozier is the horse who finished second in the Rebel. I mentioned in my post for that one that he was interesting because he is also trained by Bob Baffert and had a big improvement in his previous race. He took another step in the Rebel and finds himself as the third pick here. If Caddo River doesn’t get a much better trip this time, it could be a Baffert exacta, just like the Rebel.

Super Stock finished ahead of Caddo River by a nose in the Rebel and has been in the money in five of seven career starts, however he only has one win. Seems like the perfect candidate to fill out the superfecta.

Get Her Number finished seventh in the Rebel, but it was his first start in almost half a year. He’ll look to improve here, but hasn’t shown me anything to get my money.

Last Samurai rounds out the field. His last action was a 5th place finish in the Southwest Stakes.

Below we take a look at each horse’s last three speed figures.

I’ve run the Arkansas Derby 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 5 Concert Tour

My Bet: 5 to Win, 5-2/3-2/3-1 Superfecta

Superfecta: 5-2-3-1

I haven’t seen anything to lead me away from Concert Tour, but the public may be thinking that way too. Caddo River or Hozier are the only other ones I can see with a shot in here. We’ll see if either of those can challenge Concert Tour, but he been challenged before and responded well. A good outing here and Concert Tour could be one of the Derby favorites come the first Saturday in May.

This Year’s Rebel Stakes

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