Kentucky Derby Trail: Rebel Stakes

The 2021 Rebel Stakes will be Race 11 on March 13th at Oaklawn Park. Post time is set for 5:18 PM CT. This Grade II Race is one mile and 1/16 and has a purse of $1,000,000. The race is for three-years old horses and will give us a look at some 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders. There are eight horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Nadal. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

Concert Tour is 2-0 is his young career, although he was pushed very hard by Freedom Fighter in order to win the San Vicente (Gr. 2) in his last. Trainer Bob Baffert won this race with a very similar feel last year: a lightly raced undefeated Nadal.

Caddo River comes in off two wins in a row, the last in which he put on a show; just demolishing the field by 19 1/2 lengths in the Smarty Jones. That was at one mile so we’ll see how he likes a bit longer here at a mile and 1/16.

Keepmeinmind won the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr. 2) last November, but that field really wasn’t all that strong as years past. There definitely appears to be a drop off in this field after Concert Tour and Caddo River, but as the name states, for exotics, keep him in mind for your ticket.

Get Her Number will show some speed here and has showed promise, but there hasn’t been enough to make me believe he will hang around for the entire race.

Twilight Blue already has six starts; he’s the most experienced horse in the field, but only has two wins. One of those was his last time out in the slop, where he did run really well. Would definitely consider if it rains on Saturday, but doesn’t look like it will.

Big Lake is a horse I would consider using in exotics. Although the numbers aren’t great, he’s shown a good late pace and will like the mile and 1/16. This son of American Pharaoh added Lasix in his last and got his first career win.

Super Stock hasn’t raced since October, but he has finished in the top 3 in all of his last three races, including finishing behind Keepmeinmind two starts back. He could end up in the money, but the layoff and a tendency to start out races too eagerly may keep me off him.

Hozier is interesting here. He’s another Bob Baffert trained horse who has only raced twice. He was crushed by Concert Tour in his debut, but his second start was significantly better than his first so we’ll see what his third has to offer here. If he takes another big step, he can contend.

Below we take a look at each horse’s last three speed figures.

I’ve run the Rebel Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 7 Concert Tour

My Bet: 7 to Win

Superfecta: 7-1-6-2/3

It looks like it’s a two horse race with Concert Tour and Caddo River, but crazy things happen in horse racing and these are still young horses. I’m going to go with Concert Tour because I like that he was challenged in his last and responded with a better speed rating. This should be another good one to watch on Saturday.

Caddo River runs away with the Smarty Jones
Concert Tour wins the San Vicente Stakes

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