2021 Apple Blossom Handicap: Can Anyone Stop Monomoy Girl?

The 2021 Apple Blossom Handicap will be Race 11 on April 17th at Oaklawn Park. Post time is set for 6:09 PM CT. This Grade I race is one and 1/16 miles and has a purse of $1,000,000. The race is for fillies and mares four-years old and upwards. There are six horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Ce Ce. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

All the talk coming in is about the matchup between Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, but I think there’s a third option to consider in here; that’s Letruska. Letruska looked really good over her last three and the only race she lost was a second to reigning Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil. She’ll look to be the pace setter in this one, likely with Monomoy Girl and then Swiss Skydiver behind her. She also has Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard here.

Monomoy Girl is the top choice. How can she not be after two Breeder’s Cup distaff victories and without a loss since 2018. She’s been nothing short of incredible to watch over the past few years.

Swiss Skydiver finished 7th in that 2020 Breeder’s Cup Distaff won by Monomoy Girl, but she did stumble out of the gate in that one. And who could forget beating the boys in the Preakness last year. The only time she ran under a 110+ speed figure in her last four races was that Breeder’s Cup Distaff where she stumbled. If she races like she did in those others, she should be right up there.

Getridofwhatailesu is my choice to round out the superfecta. She’s definitely better than the other two, but also doesn’t have the resume of the top three. She did have a nice jump up in her speed figure in her last.

Chance to Shine and Another Broad round out the field. Chance to Shine had a nice jump in her last race, but still hasn’t posted any numbers that compete with the top level horses here. Another Broad is going in the wrong direction in her last two and needs a huge turnaround to compete here.

Below we take a look at each horse’s last three speed figures.

I’ve ran the Apple Blossom 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 6 Monomoy Girl

My Bet: 6 to Win

Superfecta: 6-2/3-2/3-5

There may not be much value here, especially with only six horses. Letruska might be worth a Win look if she stays 4-1 or 7/2, but anything lower than that is not worth it. It’s hard to see Monomoy Girl losing and if she does, you’re still not getting great odds with either Swiss Skydiver or Letruska. From a fan standpoint, this one should be a lot of fun to watch though.

The 2020 Breeder’s Cup Distaff

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