Race of the Week- November 7th, 2020: Longines Breeder’s Cup Classic

The 2020 Longines Classic will be Race 12 on November 7th at Keeneland. Post time is set for 4:18 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one fourth miles and has a purse of $6,000,000. The race is for horses three-years old and up. There are ten horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Vino Rosso. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

When looking at these rankings, it appears the older horses have been running the faster races most recently. Tom’s d’Etat, Improbable and Maximum Security all in that group.

Improbable has been running the best of his career lately. He’s been sensational. Three straight Grade 1 wins (Hollywood Gold Cup, Whitney Stakes, Awesome Again Stakes) and he’s ran speed figures of 116, 120 and 120 in those races. He’s going to be tough to beat.

Tom’s d’Etat also needs some consideration here. He’d won four in a row before finishing third in the Whitney to Improbable and By My Standards in his last.

Maximum Security had won six in a row before finishing second to Improbable in the Awesome Again Stakes in his last. Hasn’t had quite the speed figures of Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat, but he will be in the mix on Saturday.

Tiz the Law will likely get a lot of betting attention here. After winning the Belmont and Travers, Tiz the Law finished second in the Kentucky Derby to Authentic and decided to skip the Preakness. It’ll be interesting to see how the three-olds of Tiz the Law and Authentic handle the older horses.

By My Standards is a horse with some upside. He ran great two starts back in the Whitney and he’s finished first or second in each of his last six races. (4 Wins, 2 Seconds).

Authentic has been consistent with his speeds over his last three. A 109 speed rating exactly in each of his last three. 109 won’t be fast enough in this field.

Global Campaign is in a similar boat as Authentic. He’s ran a speed figure of exactly 109 in three of his last four. At 20-1 though, he has more value than a horse like Authentic.

I have run the 2020 Longines Breeder’s Cup Classic 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Definitely liking the older horses here. Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat grade out the best. It’s tough to know how Tiz the Law will look given a longer rest period and preparation time for this one.

Let’s take a look at each horses speed figures over their last three starts.

Improbable jumps off the page here. Each of his last two have been faster than anyone else here. I also think we can discount Title Ready, Tacitus and Higher Power by looking at the chart.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 8 Improbable

My Bet: 8 to Win, 8-4 Exacta Box, 8-4-10 Trifecta

Long Shot I Like: Tom’s d’Etat (6-1)

Superfecta: 8-4-10-7

Improbable is the horse currently running the best here. Tom’s d’Etat is a bit of wild card that could have some serious value. Maximum Security is a horse with some huge wins, but hasn’t been as good as of late as Improbable. Tiz the Law and Authentic are horses I’m fading. They’ve run a lot of races in the later part of the year and also have not faced the speed of some of these horses. Authentic lost to Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness. Even running the race he did in the Derby to beat Tiz the Law is nearly good enough here.

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