Is Essential Quality Ready to Run Away In The Jim Dandy?

The 2021 Jim Dandy Stakes will be Race 9 on July 31st at Saratoga Racecourse. Post time is set for 4:39 PM CT. This Grade I race is one and 1/8 miles and has a purse of $600,000. The race is for three-year olds. There are six horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Mystic Guide. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

Essential Quality is easily the horse to beat. At 1/2 on the morning line, it’s possible he runs away with this one easily. He won the Belmont Stakes in his last against much tougher competition than he sees here and the only race he ever lost was in the Kentucky Derby when the field is so big horses can get trapped very easily. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it’s Essential Quality all alone at the finish line. With only a six horse field, there’s no way he can get boxed in either, it would be a massive upset if he loses on Saturday.

Masqueparade has won three in a row and comes off a win in the Grade III Ohio Derby. He beat King Fury and Keepmeinmind in that one. He’s the second best horse in here, but still a ways back from Essential Quality.

Keepmeinmind always runs late and must be used to fill out exotics. He finished third in the Ohio Derby and 4th in the Preakness before that. He won’t be able to close on Essential Quality or Masqueparade, but he’s definitely a contender to finish strong and could even get up for second if Essential Quality runs away with the win.

Weyburn finished second to Mandaloun in the Pegasus last time out. He was 4th in the Wood Memorial two starts back and won the Gotham Stakes before that. He’ll look to be out on the lead and will need the race of his life to win. I’m expected him to press for the lead and fade late as Essential Quality hits stride turning for home. He could be the second most likely to win and could return a nice payout.

Dr Jack finished third in that Pegasus behind Weyburn in his last. He’s improved in each of his three career starts, but he’d need a massive step here. He’ll want to contend for the lead early, but it’ll be a tall task to keep up.

Risk Taking is a toss out here. He looked bad in both the Wood Memorial and the Preakness in his last two and his speed figures have gone backwards since his win in the Withers on February 6th.

Below we take a look at each horse’s last three speed figures.

I’ve ran the Jim Dandy 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 5 Essential Quality

My Bet: 5 to Win, 5-2, 4 Exacta

Superfecta: 5-2-4-3,1

Contrarian Finish: 3-5-2-4

Anything but an Essential Quality win would be a shocking. He’s an easy horse to single on any multi-race parlays. That being said, if he loses you could see some huge payouts. Masqueparade and Weyburn are the most likely to pull the upset. Keepmeinmind as always should be kept in mind for trifectas and superfectas and I wouldn’t count Dr Jack out of those either. Risk Taking is the horse to throw out.

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