Bonus Race of the Week- September 4th, 2020: Kentucky Oaks

It’s taken a while, but Kentucky Derby weekend is finally here and it all starts off with the Friday Card headlined by the Kentucky Oaks. The 2020 Kentucky Oaks will be Race 12 on September 4th at Churchill Downs. Post time is set for 4:45 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one eighth miles on dirt and has a purse of $1,250,000. The race is for three-year old fillies. There are nine horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Serengeti Empress.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the nine horses entered in this year’s Kentucky Oaks.

There’s only three horses with a chance in my mind, but it’s going to be so much fun to watch these horses go at it. Gamine, Swiss Skydiver and Speech are the only ones with a shot. Gamine and Swiss Skydiver are clearly above Speech and Speech is clearly above the rest of the field. Gamine has destroyed the field in her last two; the Test Stakes and the Acorn Stakes. Those were both grade 1 races and she looked unstoppable.

Swiss Skydiver took on the Boys two starts ago in the Blue Grass Stakes and finished second to Art Collector- who was going to be second choice in the Kentucky Derby before a minor leg injury. That was her only loss in her last five races. She crushed the field in her last- the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes.

The third horse that could be thrown into the mix is Speech. Speech finished second to Swiss Skydiver to starts ago in the Santa Anita Oaks and won her last in the Ashland Stakes. That was an impressive win over a really good horse in Venetian Harbor. I think she’s clearly behind Gamine and Swiss Skydiver here, but she’s definitely above the rest of the field.

I have run the 2020 Kentucky Oaks 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 5 Gamine (1-1)

My Bet: 5 to Win, 5-1 Exacta Box, 5-1-4 Trifecta

Longer Shots I Like: None

Superfecta: 5-1-4-7

The winner is going to be either Gamine, Swiss Skydiver or Speech. Those are the only horses I’m considering using. Gamine has been so impressive that I have to go with her here. Swiss Skydiver is next best and Speech is a clear third to me. I can’t wait to see those top three go at in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks!

Gamine (5 horse) wins the Longines Test in her last
Swiss Skydiver (5 horse) runs away from everyone in her last race, The Alabama Stakes
Speech (6 horse) wins the Central Bank Ashland in her last

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