We’re two weeks into the NFL season and there have been a fair share of surprises so far, particularly in the area of the quarterback. I decided to use a similar metric to measure quarterback value as I have for baseball players. I looked at Win Probability Added (WPA). This metric measures the change in Win Expectancy from one play to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning. This means the players with the highest WPA have increased their team’s chances of winning the most. First let’s look at who has the highest WPA through the first two weeks.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | |||||||
| Player | Team | Pass | Rush | Total | Pass | Rush | Total | 2 week Total |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TB | 31.36 | 0.81 | 32.17 | 18.47 | -0.64 | 17.83 | 50 |
| Pat Mahomes | KC | 13.27 | 2.16 | 15.43 | 24.58 | -0.83 | 23.75 | 39.18 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 18.95 | 0 | 18.95 | 17.85 | -2.27 | 15.58 | 34.53 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 5.03 | 1.07 | 6.1 | 18.33 | -0.46 | 17.87 | 23.97 |
| Jared Goff | LAR | 7.77 | -0.65 | 7.12 | 17.75 | -2.82 | 14.93 | 22.05 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | -1.59 | 1.34 | -0.25 | 18.76 | 3.12 | 21.88 | 21.63 |
| Drew Brees | NO | 22.47 | 0 | 22.47 | -0.52 | -0.59 | -1.11 | 21.36 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 2.11 | 0.8 | 2.91 | 10.79 | 3.95 | 14.74 | 17.65 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | -7.57 | 1.85 | -5.72 | 18.99 | 4.34 | 23.33 | 17.61 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 11.6 | 0.74 | 12.34 | 4.87 | 0.3 | 5.17 | 17.51 |
The chart above shows the top 10 quarterbacks in WPA so far. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Pat Mahomes lead the list and are not the quarterbacks that would be predicted to be atop this group. The chart also shows the breakdown of how much of the WPA comes from passing and how much from rushing. Here we see where this game-changing contribution is coming from. The breakdown can also be seen from week one to week two. I also thought it was interesting to see which quarterbacks have hurt their teams the most so the chart below shows the bottom 10 in WPA.
| Player | Team | Pass | Rush | Total | Pass | Rush | Total | 2 week Total |
| Nathan Peterman | BUF | -19.76 | -0.83 | -20.59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -20.59 |
| Sam Bradford | ARI | -11.88 | -0.25 | -12.13 | -8.05 | 0 | -8.05 | -20.18 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | -9.23 | -0.44 | -9.67 | -2.84 | 3.14 | 0.3 | -9.37 |
| DeShone Kizer | GB | -8.13 | 0 | -8.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.13 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | -9.43 | 1.6 | -7.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.83 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | -9.21 | 0.64 | -8.57 | 2.43 | -0.59 | 1.84 | -6.73 |
| Nick Foles | PHI | -9.22 | -0.57 | -9.79 | -1.23 | 4.88 | 3.65 | -6.14 |
| Mitch Trubisky | CHI | -8.23 | 1.8 | -6.43 | 0.93 | -0.52 | 0.41 | -6.02 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 1.21 | 0.17 | 1.38 | -9.23 | 1.93 | -7.3 | -5.92 |
| Tyrod Taylor | CLE | -17.19 | 8.05 | -9.14 | 2.22 | 2.25 | 4.47 | -4.67 |
When looking at this table we see three of the quarterbacks didn’t even play in week two. Nathan Peterman has been the worst and he was replaced by Josh Allen before even finishing week one. Sam Bradford and the Cardinals have been dreadful, Eli Manning remains a question in New York. The return of Carson Wentz for the Eagles will change the Eagles offense and Mitch Trubisky did get substantially better in week two for the Bears. The largest positive shifts from week one to week two can be seen below.
| Player | Team | Week 1 | Week 2 | Difference |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | -5.72 | 23.33 | 29.05 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | -6.09 | 20.11 | 26.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | -10.08 | 12.88 | 22.96 |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | -0.25 | 21.88 | 22.13 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | -6.52 | 11.57 | 18.09 |
I’m not sure this means a whole lot after only two weeks and likely has more to do with the opponents these quarterbacks faced. The start of the year has had some unusual players leading the league, we’ll see if Ryan Fitzpatrick and Pat Mahomes can keep up what they’re doing.
