The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby will be Race 12 on May 4th at Churchill Downs. Post time is set for 5:57 PM CT. This Grade I race is one and 1/4 miles and has a purse of $5,000,000. There are twenty horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Mage.
Let’s take a look at the field.
Fierceness is the favorite after a massive win in the Florida Derby in his last. He’s had some up and down performances almost only showing up every other race. But when he does show up he’s fantastic. The concern is that he’s a speed horse and draws far out as the #17. Could definitely be played against due to his all or nothing races.
Sierra Leone is the second choice (3-1 morning line). Winner of the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes in his last two. Don’t expect to see him at the back of the group, it takes him a while to get going. That could be an issue with all the traffic in the Derby but if he can find a hole turning for home he can make up the ground. Trainer thinks he still has room to improve.
Just a Touch will look to sit near the front. Could be on the lead if there weren’t so many other speed horses in here.
Honor Marie has caught a ton of attention from the “Wise-Guys” coming in. There’s plenty of reasons. His style matches up well with the Kentucky Derby. He likes to drop back and come from pretty far off the pace. With so many horses in the field, the Derby is often run at a faster pace, leading to speed horses tiring down the stretch.
The most likely of the two Japanese horses is Forever Young. He’s an undefeated 5-for-5 on five different tracks in his career. Won the UAE Derby in his last. Would be referred to as a stalker, he wants to sit off the lead and run late. Will this be the year the Japanese get one?
The other Japanese horse is T O Password. Definitely the second best after Forever Young on paper. This will be the first Derby start for Trainer Daisuke Takayanagi.
Just Steel finished second in the Arkansas Derby in his last to Muth. Muth won’t race in this one due to be trained by Bob Baffert (Suspension).
Resilience comes off a win in the Wood Memorial. He wants to be near the lead but will need to take another step to win. Seems to be progressing well. Potentially one of the forgotten horses in this race, may be value.
Catching Freedom will be looking to run late, I like the profile here for a longshot who could be there. Won the Louisiana Derby in his last but will need another step.
Track Phantom is another potential longshot. Adds blinkers, could be a wild card. Will need a boost from his recent figures.
Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Stronghold, hasn’t gotten much love. He hasn’t shown the speed as many of the others in this one.
Dornoch unfortunately draws the rail. He’s a speed horse anyway but his only option is to go for the lead. Interesting fact is he is Last Year’s Derby Winner Mage’s full brother.
Society Man is a long shot in here. Finished second in the Wood Memorial but would need a big step up.
Endlessly comes in off winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on March 23rd. 8th place finisher in last November’s Juvenile Turf. Speed rating has decreased in each of his last two.
Mystik Dan will try to fall back and save ground. Finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby in his last. If there’s any rain I might consider this one more.
Catalytic is lightly raced. Ran second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Stalker, could see him hitting the board just based on style but winning may be too much.
Domestic Product comes in off a big layout. Another longshot but could also be considered a wildcard. He likes to come from off the pace. The plan laid out by trainer Chad Brown is to save ground early and close late and with Irad Ortiz Jr aboard this is one to watch.
Longshot West Saratoga will be the only grey horse in the field. He won the Iroquois at Churchill Downs last September. He’s never won at two turns and the distance is a big question.
Grand Mo the First is a toss horse for me. Hasn’t ran over an 86-speed figure in any of his last three races. Third in the Florida Derby in his last.
Epic Ride draws in with Encino scratching. He’s a speed that may try to challenge Fierceness from the outside.
I’ve ran the Kentucky Derby 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.
Take the simulations with a grain of salt for the Derby, these are young horses and the results are based heavily on speed figures. The Kentucky Derby is a different beast with 20 runners.
Quick Wrap and Betting Strategies
Most Likely to Win: 17 Fierceness
My Bet: 2/7/15/17 – Exacta Box
Superfecta: 2/17-2/7/11/15-2/4/7/11/15/19-2/4/7/11/15/19
Long Shot: 7 Honor Marie, 15 Domestic Product
As a bettor, you have to decide if you’re in or out on Fierceness and structure accordingly. With the questions around his performances, there may be a chance to beat him here. Forever Young appears to be a legitimate contender. I tend to look at the stalkers and closers in the Derby, especially this one with all the speed. That’s why I like Honor Marie and Domestic Product as longshots. Similarly, Sierra Leone fits into that closing style preferred here. Catching Freedom is another one I’d consider with that same thought. I’m excited for another run for the roses on Saturday!