Bonus Race of the Week- November 7th, 2020: Breeder’s Cup Longines Distaff

The 2020 Breeder’s Cup Longines Distaff will be Race 10 on November 7th at Keeneland. Post time is set for 2:54 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one eighth and has a purse of $2,000,000. The race is for fillies and mares horses three-years old and up. There are ten horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Blue Prize. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

Monomoy Girl Won this race back in 2018 and is still the best horse here. She’s finished first in her last 10 races (was DQ’d in one of those). How can she not be the horse to beat here.

Swiss Skydiver is going to be the second favorite. She has all the hype after beating the boys in the Preakness in her last. I think the Preakness field was a little weaker this year with a lot of horses prepping for the Breeder’s Cup (It’s usually not this close to the Preakness).

Ollie’s Candy has great speed. We’ll see if she keeps it up for a mile and one eighth, but she’ll be at the front in the start.

Point of Honor is an interesting horse too. Probably shouldn’t be 30-1. She’s never finished outside the top four and she’s finished second or third in all four graded stakes races she’s been in this year.

I have run the 2020 Breeders Cup Distaff 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Ollie’s Candy has some great speed here and if she can hold on there’s definitely a chance. If she can’t Swiss Skydiver has a higher likelihood of victory than shown by my simulations.

Let’s take a look at each horses speed figures over their last three starts.

Here we see a few things: Monomoy Girl has the highest ceiling, but can definitely lose if she doesn’t run her best. We see Ollie’s Candy has had recent speed ratings greater than Swiss Skydiver over her last two.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 10 Monomoy Girl

My Bet: 10 to Win, 10-9 Exacta

Long Shot I Like: Ollie’s Candy (10-1), Point of Honor (30-1)

Superfecta: 10-9-5-7

I think Monomoy Girl is best here and she’s won this race before. Swiss Skydiver may be second best, but I think she’ll get over bet and there may be an opportunity to find value in horses like Ollie’s Candy and Point of Honor.

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