Race of the Week- October 24th, 2020: Ken Maddy Stakes

The 2020 Ken Maddy Stakes will be Race 8 on October 24th at Santa Anita. Post time is set for 4:37 PM CT. This Grade III Race is five and a half furlongs and has a purse of $100,000. The race is for three-year old and up fillies and mares. There are seven horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Just Grazed Me. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

Jo Jo Air jumps off the page as the best horse. The only hold up with her is her last race. As you’ll see on the speed figure graph later on, it was really bad compared to her other races. But if that was just a bad day and she’s back to form then she’s the best horse here.

I think An Eddie Surprise is next best here and she’s been solid over her last three and run consistently faster in each of those. I think she’s definitely the net best if Jo Jo Air struggles again.

Lakerball is the long shot at 15-1, but she’s been much better in his last two and she has hall of fame jockey Mike Smith aboard in this one. Her speed figure has jumped ten points in each of her last two starts so she’s definitely trending in the right direction.

With a short sprint race like this it’s about who gets out of the gate well that can make or break the race.

I have run the 2020 Ken Maddy Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Crazy high percentage for Jo Jo Air and it’s legit if she runs like she did two and three starts ago. If she doesn’t anyone else here does have a shot and could be worth a look at the right odds.

Let’s take a look at each horses speed figures over their last three starts.

We see the big dip in Jo Jo Air’s last race and a lot of the other horses who are trending upward. As we can see by each horse’s last start, everyone here is capable so it might be best to wait and look at where the odds are at to determine value.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 1 Jo Jo Air (5/2)

My Bet: 1-3 Exacta Box, 1-3-4 Trifecta

Long Shot I Like: 3 An Eddie Surprise (6-1), 4 Lakerball (15-1)

Superfecta: 1-3-4-6

This one will be about getting a good start for an efficient quick trip home. I’m going with the horses I like on the inside who should hopefully have the right position to do that and the experienced jockeys that will make it happen.

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