Race of the Week- October 17th, 2020: Raven Run Stakes

The 2020 Lexus Raven Run Stakes will be Race 9 on October 17th at Keeneland. Post time is set for 4:30 PM CT. This Grade II Race is seven furlongs and has a purse of $200,000. The race is for three-years old fillies. There are ten horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Bell’s the One. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the ten horses entered in this year’s Raven Run Stakes.

Venetian Harbor and Four Graces are the favorites here, but there’s a few horses that could give them a run. Venetian Harbor is coming off three straight second place finishes, but they were second to Gamine, Speech and Swiss Skydiver. There are no horses here of that caliber, which is why Venetian Harbor’s deserves heavy consideration as the favorite here.

Four Graces had won three in a row until she was upset by Sconsin in her last at the Eight Belles Stakes. She’s been an impressive horse, but hasn’t faced the competition of Venetian Harbor.

Reagan’s Edge is the horse that gets my attention on my rankings. She’s finished second in each of her last two- both to Frank’s Rockette. No Frank’s Rockette here and it might be what she needs to finally get up for the win. At 8-1, she’s a bit of a longer shot, but she had the best speed figures of anyone here, so at the price, she deserve a look.

Finite had a win three starts back (that speed rating was enough to get her to third in my rankings), but she has finished fourth and eleventh since then and hasn’t looked good. I’m fading her here.

If there’s a longer shot dark horse here, I’m going with Fair Maiden. She hadn’t run all year until she made a start back on September 19th where she ran an impressive speed rating of 100 and was clear of the field to win an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs.

I have run the 2020 Raven Run Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Let’s take a look at each horses speed figures over their last three starts.

Hard to ignore Reagan’s Edge given that speed graph. We also see Four Graces with a consistent increase over her last three as well as Fair Maiden impressive last race (remember that’s her only race of 2020). Venetian Harbor is consistently up there too, so you know she’ll be around the leaders here too.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 6 Reagan’s Edge (8-1)

My Bet: 6 to Win 6-2 Exacta

Long Shot I Like: 6 Reagan’s Edge (8-1), 8 Fair Maiden (15-1)

Superfecta: 6-2-5-8

I’m fading finite given her most recent poor performances. I’m going to use Reagan’s Edge to try to get some value and I think I’m going to try to beat Venetian Harbor with Four Graces. Reagan’s Edge and Four Graces could be a nice payout and that’s the way I’m going to look to get some value.

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