Race of the Week- October 10th, 2020: Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes

The 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes will be Race 9 on October 10th at Belmont. Post time is set for 3:48 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one fourth miles and has a purse of $250,000. The race is for horses three-years olds and upwards. There are five horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Code of Honor. Tacitus headlines this year’s group of contenders. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the five horses entered in this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes.

Tacitus is definitely my most likely to win. Despite constantly being one of the favorites, Tacitus has only won one his last nine races. They have all come against good opposition, and he did finish second in four of them, but he really hasn’t won that big race yet. He finished third in this race last year against some real quality horses in Code of Honor and Vino Rosso. There were also some excuses in those with bad starts and some general unluckiness and against this field he’s definitely still the best horse here.

Mystic Guide is a horse coming off an impressive win in the Jim Dandy against horses like Liveyourbeastlike, Jesus’ Team and Dr Post. Two starts back he finished third to Country Grammer and Caracaro in the Peter Pan so he’s been facing a lot of triple crown race competitors.

Prioritize finished 3rd in the Woodward in his last behind Tacitus. He hasn’t ran in near as many competitive races as a horse like Tacitus (only two graded stakes races for Prioritize). I like him, but the competition is definitely a step up here.

Happy Saver is the second favorite according to the morning line. He’s interesting because he only has three career starts and has won them all. They haven’t been the competition he’ll see in this one so he’s a horse who is difficult to predict. Worth a look, but 2-1 isn’t good enough odds for me to see value.

I have run the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Let’s take a look at each horses speed figures over their last three starts

Tacitus is the most consistent at the highest speed, but Prioritize isn’t far behind. Mystic Guide is a little more difficult to predict. He was awesome in his last, much much slower the race before, however that race did have a slower pace to it.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: Tacitus (1-1)

My Bet: 4 to Win, 4-2 Exacta

Long Shot I Like: Prioritize (4-1), Mystic Guide (4-1)

Superfecta: 4-2-1-5

I think Tacitus is the best horse here and it’s hard for me to see him not being there at the finish, especially in just a five horse field. I’m going with prioritize because of his recent consistency and the value at 4-1. I don’t think you get that value with Happy Saver at 2-1. Mystic Guide could win if he runs like he did in his last, but I’m not sure he will. I think there is more variability with him and that’s pushing me away from him here.

This years Woodward Stakes (Tacitus 2nd, Prioritize 3rd)
Happy Saver wins his 2nd start of the year
Mystic Guide wins the 2020 Jim Dandy

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