Race of the Week- September 26th, 2020: Awesome Again Stakes

The 2020 Awesome Again Stakes will be Race 10 on September 26th at Santa Anita. Post time is set for 5:14 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one eighth miles and has a purse of $300,000. The race is for horses three-years old and upward. There are five horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Mongolian Groom. The big headliners in this year’s field are Maximum Security and Improbable. Let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the eight horses entered in this year’s Awesome Again Stakes.

As the morning line odds would suggest, Maximum Security is definitely the best horse here. Improbable is the clear second-best. Maximum Security has won his last six starts and looked very impressive in his last win in the Pacific Classic Stakes. That was a race a wrote about a month ago and correctly predicted the the winner, trifecta and superfecta.

Improbable will be Maximum’s Security’s biggest challenger here. He looked great in his last, The Whitney Stakes, and ran a speed figure of 120 in that race and a 116 the race before that! Maximum Security ran a 118 in his last and a 107 the time out before that. I definitely think Improbable has a shot to take down Maximum Security here, but he’ll have to run like he did in his last time out.

The third horse in my rankings is Sleepy Eyes Todd. I really like this horse and he’s at a price so there could be an opportunity for some value here.. He’s won two of his last three and his last time out in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic was impressive as he won easily against some real good competition.

Midcourt is another horse to keep an eye on. He was right with Maximum Security two starts back at the San Diego Handicap, finishing second. Then he finished third in his last in that Pacific Classic behind Maximum Security and Sharp Samurai. I like him, but at 6-1 I don’t think there’s enough value there.

I have run the 2020 Awesome Again Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: Maximum Security (3/5)

My Bet: 5/2 Exacta Box, 2-5-3 Trifecta, 5-2-3 trifecta

Long Shot I Like: Sleepy Eyes Todd (12-1)

Superfecta: 5-2-3-4

Maximum Security and Improbable have looked so good lately that I can’t go against them. I’m considering a trifecta with Improbable winning and Sleepy Eyes Todd getting up for third to try to find some value. But with only five horses, this race might just be more fun to watch.

Maximum Security wins the Pacific Classic in his last (Midcourt 3rd)
Improbable wins the Whitney Stakes in his last
Sleepy Eyes Todd Wins the Charles Town Classic in his last

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