Race of the Week- September 19th, 2020: Woodbine Mile Stakes

The 2020 Woodbine Mile Stakes will be Race 9 on September 19th at Woodbine. Post time is set for 4:39 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one mile on turf and has a purse of $1,000,000. The race is for horses three-years old and upward. There are eight horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was El Tormenta. The big headliner in this year’s field is 2019 Preakness winner War of Will, but let’s take a look at the rankings for everyone in this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the eight horses entered in this year’s Woodbine Mile Stakes.

My rankings see this as pretty much a two horse race. War of Will and March to the Arch are definitely the most obvious horses to use. Yeah there’s other horses that could get up, but the distance between the top two and the rest of the field in my rankings is just too much for me to look elsewhere.

War of Will won the Maker’s Mark Mile in his last and has only raced against top competition his whole career. He has grade 1 victories on both dirt (Preakness) and turf (Maker’s Mark Mile), which is something you see very rarely in horse racing. I have to use him in this race.

March to the Arch is the other horse I’m using. He won his last in the the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes at Woodbine. He wasn’t great in either or his two before that, but they were both races with a lot of talented horses and his numbers from those still ranks him far above the rest here.

Admiralty Pier is fourth on my rankings and 10-1 morning line he can offer some value. He led most of that King Edwards Stakes in his last before being run down by March to the Arch to finish second.

The other intriguing horse to me is Starship Jubilee. This 7-year-old mare is well-traveled with 37 career starts. She’s faced some of the best female turf horses too, beating Sistercharlie two starts back and finishing behind Sistercharlie, Mean Mary and Rushing Fall in the Diana in her last. Her speed ratings make me think she’s a third or fourth choice here, but she’s and interesting contender here.

I have run the 2020 Woodbine Mile Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: March to the Arch (5/2)/ War of Will (2-1)

My Bet: 1-8 Exacta Box, 8/1-8/1-4/6-6/4 Superfecta

Longer Shots I Like: Admiralty Pier (10-1)

Superfecta: 1/8-1/8-4-6

March to the Arch closes out Admiralty Pier in his last win
War of Will wins Maker’s Mark Mile

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