Race of the Week- August 22nd, 2020: TVG Pacific Classic Stakes

The 2020 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes will be Race 10 on August 22nd at Del Mar. Post time is set for 8:36 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one fourth miles and has a purse of $500,000. The race is for horses three-year old and upward. There are six horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner, Higher Power, is in the field again this year. Let’s take a look at the rankings for this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the six horses entered in this year’s Pacific Classic Stakes.

Maximum Security looks to be the clear favorite here after winning his last five including the Saudi Cup and the San Diego Handicap against two of the same horses here (Midcourt finished 2nd, Higher Power 3rd). Midcourt was very impressive in that one losing to Maximum Security on a photo-finish.

Sharp Samurai was supposed to be in that San Diego Handicap field too, but was scratched. His last nine races have all been graded stakes races and he didn’t finished worse than fourth in any of them, but also only won one of them. He’ll definitely be in that mix with Maximum Security and Midcourt.

Mirinaque is a bit of an unknown coming over from Argentina for this one, but I have him outside of those top three I’m looking at.

Higher Power ranks last on my rankings due to poor speed figures in two of his last three. While the other start he had was impressive, he’s been inconsistent as of late and wasn’t up there to challenge with Maximum Security and Midcourt in the San Diego Handicap. He’s overpriced at 3-1, likely due to stronger races a while back and being the winner of this race last year.

I have run the 2020 Pacific Classic Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 5 Maximum Security (1-1)

My Bet: 5-6-1 Trifecta Box

Longer Shots I Like: Sharp Samurai (8-1), Midcourt (7/2)

Superfecta: 5-(1,6)-(1,6)-2

I’m staying away from Higher Power here. The three horses I’ll uses are Maximum Security, Midcourt and Sharp Samurai. Midcourt showed in the San Diego Handicap that Maximum Security could be beaten and Sharp Samurai was flying late at the end of his last; he probably would’ve won had the race been a little longer (and this race is). I think those three all have a shot. Higher Power does have a shot, but I don’t like him at his odds.

Maximum Security (5 horse) holds off Midcourt (6 horse) in San Diego Handicap, Higher Power finishes 3rd (1 horse)
Sharp Samurai (3 horse) finishes second, almost gets up for first in his last (Eddie Read Stakes)

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