Race of the Week- August 15th, 2020: Alabama Stakes

The 2020 Alabama Stakes will be Race 9 on August 15th at Saratoga. Post time is set for 5:43 PM CT. This Grade I Race is one and one fourth miles and has a purse of $500,000. The race is for three-year old fillies. There are seven horses in the field this year. Last year’s winner was Dunbar Road. Let’s take a look at the rankings for this year’s field.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Horse’s rank values are calculated based off of the other horses in the field. Let’s check out the rankings for the seven horses entered in this year’s Alabama Stakes.

Swiss Skydiver is atop the rankings and with a morning line of 1-1, she is the horse to beat. She raced against the boys in her last during the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 2). She finished second to Art Collector, who has been phenomenal and a likely the second or third choice in the Kentucky Derby right now.

The longer shot that is high on my rankings here at 8-1 is Bonny South. She finished fourth in her last (Ashland Stakes Gr. 1), but faded at a mile and a sixteenth and finished behind Envoutante (also a horse with a shot here with Jose Ortiz aboard). Two starts ago she won the Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr. 2) and posted a 100 speed figure (one mile and one sixteenth). I have some concerns about her goin a mile and a fourth, but Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount and so she is worth considering.

Spice Is Nice ran a 104 speed rating in her last at Belmont on July 3rd after some less impressive performances earlier on in the year. That kind of speed could absolutely go up against Swiss Skydiver in this one. Bonny South’s top speed figure was 100, so if we are going by recent performance and max speed figures then Spice Is Nice is the second best horse here.

Crystal Ball has been increasing her speed rating each of her three career races (87, 97, 99) and finished second by a head in the American Oaks back on July 18th. You always need to consider a Bob Baffert trained horse and Crystal Ball is likely my third choice here.

I have run the 2020 Alabama Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: 5 Swiss Skydiver (1-1)

My Bet: 5 to Win, 5-2 Exacta, 5-4 Exacta

Longer Shots I Like: Bonny South (8-1), Crystal Ball (9/2)

Superfecta: 5-2-3-4

Swiss Skydiver is the horse to beat here. She’s back facing fillies after taking on the boys in an impressive effort in her last. I could see Spice Is Nice, Crystal Ball, or Bonny South being in the mix behind her.

Swiss Skydiver finishes second in the Bluegrass Stakes
Bonny South finishes 4th, Envoutante finishes 3rd in the Ashland

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