Race of the Week- July 18th, 2020: TVG.com Haskell Stakes

The 2020 TVG.com Haskell Stakes will be Race 12 on July 18th at Monmouth Park. Post time is set for 4:46 PM CT. This race is a Kentucky Derby prep-race this year and the winner will get automatic entry into the 2020 Breeder’s Cup Classic Championship. This Grade 1 Race is one and one eighth miles and has a purse of $1,000,000. There are seven horses in the field, but many think it might really only be a one or two horse race. Last year’s winner was Maximum Security. The race has been won previously by great horses like American Pharoah, Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra and War Emblem.

In my algorithm, there are several factors I take into consideration including the horse’s past performances, workouts, winnings as well as the jockey’s performances and winnings. Let’s check out the rankings for the seven horses entered in this year’s Haskell Stakes.

The 4/5 Morning Line favorite Authentic is a Bob Baffert trained horse that ships in from the West Coast. Authentic looks like the clear best horse on my rankings. He comes off a second place finish as the 1/2 favorite in the Santa Anita Derby back in June (Beaten by Honor A.P.). Although he is the heavy favorite, there is some reason to try to go against him, Authentic’s speed figures have gone down in each of his last two races (113, 105, 101).

The second best horse according to my ratings is Dr Post. He comes in off a second place finish to Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes (Ruined my exacta with Tiz the Law and Max Player). His speed figures are trending in the opposite direction of Authentic; increasing each of the last two races (92, 101, 107).

There’s two longer shots I’m going to consider. First let’s look at the 4 Ancient Warrior. I don’t think he can beat Authentic or Dr Post, but at a big price of 20-1 he definitely could get up for 3rd. The 3 Jesus’ Team is also worth a look at 15-1, he had the third most wins of anyone in the field during my simulations (below). His speed figures are also trending up over each of his past two starts (78, 97, 106). He finished second in his last behind Sole Volante in a talented field and won each of the two races prior to that. I haven’t touched on the 7 Ny Traffic at all and he has a shot (finished second in each of his last two), but the speed ratings lead me to look to other horses here. He is a horse to consider throwing in your trifectas and superfectas.

I have run the 2020 Haskell Stakes 1,000 times in simulations. Below are the results of those races.

Quick Wrap Up and Betting Strategies

Most Likely to Win: Authentic (4/5)

Longer Shot I Like: Jesus’ Team (15-1)

My Bet: 2-1 Exacta Box (if payout isn’t terrible) or 1-3 Exacta

Superfecta: 2-1-3-4

The best bet here is going to depend on how heavily Authentic and Dr Post get bet. If Authentic stays 4/5 or worse I would bet Dr Post and look into using Jesus’ Team too. Authentic tired in his last and this is a long race after traveling cross country. I’m not saying he can’t do it, I don’t think it’s worth 4/5 though. Especially where Dr Post and Jesus’ Team are very capable.

Authentic (7 horse) comes up short in Santa Anita Derby
Dr Post (9 horse) finishes 2nd to Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes
Jesus’ Team (5 horse out closed by Sole Volante back in last start)

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